During the past two years a convergence of events including the global pandemic, the effects of Brexit, international conflict, economic instability and pressures in the global supply chain have played on the minds of consumers. Search term volume data can indicate Search Sentiment™. This is because Search term volume data is the most useful and reliable indicator of searcher sentiment and intent.
Various search terms and corresponding search volumes can also reflect Pre Trend Search Sentiment™ and can reflect the concerns which are foremost in the minds of an initial small number of searchers before search volumes increase and the search term is searched for more often thus in time becoming more popular and turning .
We’ve identified three search terms related to ‘food shortages’ which we would currently class as pre-trend. The related search volumes for these terms can be deemed as “insignificant” because the monthly search volumes have been 10 or less over the past 3 months however the search volume for these search terms have increased exponentially over a period of one to two months. What these three search terms do have in common is the signficiant pre-trend small search volume which have now suddenly grown by a factor of over 100% in February and March.
Pre Trend Search Volume™
We’ve indentified Pre Trend Search Volume™ which show:
1. Search term volume which has been non existent or had very few searches over
2. A sudden exponential growth in search volume for a search term. This is the volume
‘spike’ which can be a precurser to a trending search term
3. A volume spike of over 100% from one month to the next
4. Continual growth in search volume over the last 3 to 6 months
Pre Trend Search Terms Indentified
“Why is there a food shortage 2022”:
Feb 2022, 10
Mar 2022, 30
April 2022, 170
Cumulative Percentage Trend Increase over the past 3 to 4 months: +871%
“Wheat Shortage 2022”:
Feb 2022, 10
Mar 2022, 90
April 2022, 720
Cumulative Percentage Trend Increase over the past 3 to 4 months: +940%
“Food Shortages in Europe”:
Feb 2022, 10
Mar 2022, 20,
April 2022, 90
Cumulative Percentage Trend Increase over the past 3 to 4 months: +468%
The above search terms share the fact that there were no search volume recorded at all before November 2021.
Active searching began from December 2021 onwards through to March/April 2022. This may be an early indicator to what is likely to be pre-occupying people’s minds throughout 2022 and 2023.
It would be interesting to see whether these quite small search volumes are a precurser to a trend and increase sharply month to month and show continual growth over a period of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months or merely a short temporary spike in volume.
It is likely volumes will increase and that new Affiliated Search Terms™ will emerge leading into autumn/winter 2022 when further increases in the cost of energy, food, and clothing are expected.
We expect the trend in search volume for these three search terms and Affiliated Search Terms™ and search volumes to appear and continue upwards as the slowdown in the economy, the increased effects of inflation and cost of living pressures, and concern over the conflict in Ukraine push people to search for ways to alleviate their economic and financial situation.